Groundhog Day in Ramallah

Jason Greenblatt and Mahmoud Abbas

I feel bad for Prince William. According to a report in The Mirror, the British royal’s recent visit with Israelis and Palestinians has had such a profound impact on him that he now considers bringing peace to the Middle East as “his lifelong project.”

On second thought, maybe I don’t feel that bad for the prince, because his wish will probably come true — getting a peace deal signed between Israelis and Palestinians is, indeed, a lifelong project. At least.

There are many fancy explanations for the spectacular failure of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, but rest assured, I won’t bore you with any of them. I’ll just share what I think is the essential stumbling block of the conflict: Palestinian leaders will never sign a deal that is good for the Jews.

For decades, we have been telling Palestinians that a two-state solution is not just good for the Jews — it’s indispensable. It will save Zionism. By separating Israel from millions of Palestinians, a two-state solution will ensure that Israel survives as a Jewish and democratic state. How do you get a bigger Jewish victory than that?

Conversely, what kind of “victory” can Palestinians expect if Israeli Defense Forces abandoned the West Bank? That terror groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad would swoop in and start murdering rival Palestinian factions — as they did in Gaza?

In other words, as crazy as this may sound to a peace activist, Palestinian leaders have an enormous incentive to maintain the status quo. As long as Palestinians can keep their status as the world’s most celebrated victims, the hated Zionist entity will keep its status as the world’s most condemned state.

As crazy as this may sound to a peace activist, Palestinian leaders have an enormous incentive to maintain the
status quo.

For corrupt, Jew-hating Palestinian leaders, maintaining global victim status that fills their personal bank accounts is more important than improving the daily lives of their people.

Sure, you can argue that building Jewish settlements in areas that would represent a future Palestinian state has been unhelpful; that the current governing coalition in Israel is anything but favorable to a two-state solution; and that the Trump administration’s decision to move its embassy to West Jerusalem has further alienated Palestinians.

But these factors have nothing to do with Palestinian incentives. You can put a left-wing party in charge in Israel, evacuate all settlements and move the U.S. embassy back to Tel Aviv. This won’t change the fact that Palestinian leaders will still not want to make a deal that is good for the Jews and puts their personal safety and wealth in jeopardy.

This law of incentive is true whether you’re pro-Israel or anti-Israel, pro-settlement or anti-settlement, liberal or conservative. It’s the inconvenient truth no one wants to talk about.

That’s how we end up with decade after decade of Groundhog Days, of peace processing that runs in circles, of false hopes that only lead to more cynicism.

The latest entry in this endless saga is the Trump administration’s peace plan that envoys Jared Kushner and Jason Greenblatt have been working on for over a year, and which, apparently, they’re about to reveal. I’ve met Greenblatt and I’ve found him fair and earnest. I give him credit for the immense effort he has put into the plan, and for listening to all sides of the conflict.

But just as I feel bad for Prince William, I feel bad for Greenblatt. I haven’t seen his famous plan, but it’s telling that Palestinian leaders have already rejected it. At least we can thank them for showing their true colors.

I’ll just share what I think is the essential stumbling block of the conflict: Palestinian leaders will never sign a deal that is good for the Jews.  

If Palestinian leaders wanted their own state, they would have had it a long time ago. They would have stopped promoting Jew-hatred and glorifying terrorism. They would have focused on building and creating rather than undermining and destroying. They would have elevated responsibility over permanent victimhood.

But their contempt for Jews and Zionism has gotten the better of them. They believe Zionism is a criminal enterprise that punished Palestinians for the crime of the Europeans. They believe Jews are land thieves and they expect all of their land back, including Haifa and Tel Aviv. They dream of destroying Zionism more than they dream of building their own state.

Until this dream comes true, they will continue to reject a two-state solution if it means accepting a Jewish state and saving Zionism. That would simply be too good for the Jews.

I hope Prince William has a long life and a thick skin.

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Why Is There a Record 6.7 Million Open Jobs?

A notable thing happened in the U.S. workforce in April. For the first time since the Labor Department started to keep track in 2000, there were more job openings than unemployed people. The number of openings hit a record 6.7 million for the month, exceeding the number of jobless by 352,000. On paper, there’s a job for everyone who wants one, and more.

This comes as the marquee jobs number — the unemployment rate — sits at 3.8 percent nationwide, a rate last seen in 2000 and seen only twice in 50 years. The jobless rates for California and Los Angeles are slightly higher, but still near historic lows at 4.2 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively. The unemployment rate measures the percentage of out-of-work people who are actively looking for a job against the entire labor force. 

So, we have this unique situation: a low jobless rate, record job openings and more than enough people to fill them. Why aren’t employers hiring the 6.4 million people actively looking for work? I turned to Beth Ann Bovino, the chief U.S. economist for S&P Global in New York, for an answer. “I think a big factor is a skills mismatch.” You’ve probably heard this phrase before. Simply put, it’s the difference between the skills employers are looking for in their workers and the skills the job seekers have. 

Usually, when employment is high, job openings are down. Bovino is seeing something different right now. “What we’ve seen is it’s shifted out, and that to us says labor mismatch. Businesses cutting costs and not wanting to pay benefits, that could be part of it. But we think a big factor is skills. That’s really at play here.”

Clearly, we’re in the midst of a new phase of structural unemployment, or unemployment resulting from changing technology. “History has shown that we usually have a structural lag with new technological change,” Bovino said. “People need to catch up with the skills to compete. We’ve seen it before, but the question is, do these people need a little bit of a step-up to be able to work in this environment, or are they going to be left behind?” 

Seventy-seven percent of businesses worldwide have indicated they will retrain workers to fit their company needs.

Bovino suggested that “given that many businesses complain that they can’t find the workers they need with the skills that they need, it seems like they’d be very interested in helping with reskilling this workforce that’s fallen behind.” Seventy-seven percent of businesses worldwide have indicated they will retrain workers to fit their company needs, according to one Deloitte survey. 

“One of the worries that I think businesses have is that, ‘What if I invest in reskilling these workers, and then they go somewhere else?’ And that’s a tough question,” Bovino said. “An alternative way to look at it is that if a business does invest in that worker, and really give them the skills they need, that worker might be more loyal to the business in the end.

“I’m not an IT specialist, so I’m only speaking as an economist, but I would say that one thing that looks different is that the technological change happens so much faster today than it did 10, 15, 40 years ago.

“It seems like it is happening in seconds, in minutes, versus hours or days or months. And so that might also leave kind of a question for the business of reskilling that worker with the technology he or she needs right now, which might become obsolete in just a few months. That is one little worry that I would have.”

Here’s another thing that worries economists. The unemployment rate measures only the percentage of out-of-work people who actively are looking for work. It doesn’t count people who are employed part time, or those who’ve given up looking for work completely. That’s millions more people who need new training before employers will consider hiring them to fill one of those record 6.7 million openings. We have a very long way to go before our workforce is ready for all the current and future jobs new technology is creating.

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Ramona Schindelheim is the senior business correspondent and executive producer for WorkingNation, reporting on jobs, the future of work, and innovative solutions to solving the skills gap. Follow her on Twitter at @RamonaWritesLA.

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Struggling With Our Demons

Our memory plays tricks on us. We remember what we want to remember. We remember what makes us feel good. It makes me feel good to remember only the great times from my summers at Jewish camp — the canoe trips, the sports, the laughter, the music. That time a fellow camper made fun of my immigrant English? That’s a memory I’d rather suppress.

Our selective memories rise to the occasion when it comes to anniversaries. If you’re at a party honoring a long marriage, who wants to rain on the parade by recalling moments when the couple almost divorced? Who needs dark memories when we’re celebrating the glorious passage of time?

Countries are no different. This year, Israel turned 70. All year long, it’s been one celebration after another — and why not? The rebirth of the Jewish state after a 1,900-year journey in exile qualifies as a bona fide miracle. All celebrations are justified.

And yet, in the midst of the euphoria, there’s also shame. We tend to forget that something extraordinarily dark happened in 1948, just as Israel was fighting its War of Independence. This has become known as the Altalena Affair, named after the armed Jewish ship that was bombed by the newly minted Israel Defense Forces.

In the spirit of seeking truth and facing up to our demons, we decided to make this 70th anniversary of the Altalena Affair the subject of our cover story this week by political editor Shmuel Rosner. He writes:

How could this happen? How could such division plague the country in the midst of an epic war? How could an Israeli prime minister order the bombing of a Jewish ship?

“On June 21-22, 1948, Israel got as close as it ever did to having a civil war. Patriotic Jews fired on other patriotic Jews. Battle-ready Jews bombed battle-ready Jews. The enemy was attacking and trying to destroy a very young country. But for two days, its defenders were busy fighting and killing one another.”

How could this happen? How could such division plague the country in the midst of an epic war? How could an Israeli prime minister order the bombing of a Jewish ship? As you’ll see in our story, it was a perfect storm of circumstances that led to an emotional escalation that reached a tragic breaking point.

If it were a novel, Altalena would be a relentless thriller full of intrigue. But it’s not. It’s real life. It’s a cautionary tale of what can happen when our passions get the better of us.

Rosner calls it a “defining moment in Israel’s history.” I call it a reminder that we’re always vulnerable to our darkest demons, even when the moment calls for our highest selves.

One of the benefits of success is that we can afford to look back on our failures and study them. The failures no longer threaten us. We overcame them. Israel overcame the horror of Altalena and won the war. It prevailed.

That’s why I don’t feel guilty raining on Israel’s 70th anniversary parade. Israel is strong enough to look back and reflect on the hard lessons of Altalena.

One of the benefits of success is that we can afford to look back on our failures and study them. The failures no longer threaten us.

My friend Noam Weissman, who’s an educator at Jerusalem U, has his own take on Altalena: It is Menachem Begin’s decision not to “shoot back” that is his defining moment. As he writes as part of our cover story: 

“Menachem Begin made a startling decision: ‘Do not shoot back!’ he told his men. That Begin chose to sublimate himself and his organization to the will of the newly founded state is perhaps one of the defining moments in modern Israeli history and broader Jewish history, and he deserves credit for transcending his own beliefs in the service of a cause bigger than himself.”

Whichever way you look at it, Altalena is worth struggling with, however painful the memory. But Rosner reminds us that memory can also go too far; that certain elements of Israeli society use the Altalena as justification for keeping destructive political fights alive. “In these people’s eyes,” he writes, “Israel seems like ocean and all its disliked institutions — the media, the courts, the nongovernmental organizations, the opposition, the critics, the leftists, you name it — seem like sinkable ships.”

The murder of Yitchak Rabin was a ship that sank, a moment of national shiva that was even darker than Altalena.

Maybe that’s the best reason to remember Altalena in the midst of all the celebrations — to remind us how much better it feels to party than to grieve.

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North Koreans Also Have Human Rights

For almost three decades, U.S. administrations have tiptoed around the egregious human rights violations perpetrated by the Kim regimes in North Korea. But U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo already has changed the equation, by succeeding in securing the release of American detainees Kim Dong-chul, Kim (Tony) Sang-duk, and Kim Hak-song. A reminder to us and the world that the United States still has the clout to move the needle on human rights.

On the eve of the Singapore summit on denuclearization, we urge President Donald Trump to put the release of Japanese, other foreign and South Korean abductees, the reunion of separated Korean families, and the complete, verifiable, irreversible dismantlement of the North Korean political prison camps, as the bill the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea must foot to become a normal and responsible member of the international community.

Three generations of the Kim family regime have continued to develop nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles at the expense of the human security of North Koreans, and to egregiously violate the human rights of its citizens. In order to tackle North Korean threats, the Trump administration has applied three of the four fundamental elements of national power (diplomatic, information, military, economic power — DIME): economic power through the strengthening of the international sanctions regime; military power through the deployment of assets to the region and the reaffirming of U.S. commitment to our Korean and Japanese allies; and diplomatic power, employing for the first time summit diplomacy, made possible by the maximum economic and military pressure and the resuscitation of inter-Korean dialogue, starting with the 2018 Winter Olympic Games in PyeongChang, South Korea.

Kim Jong-un wants security guarantees, but history has taught time and again that liberal democracies shouldn’t try to guarantee the survival of a regime that runs political prison camps and commits crimes against humanity. South Korean President Moon Jae-in and his key advisers represent a generation of progressive intellectuals who helped democratize their nation. Their lasting legacy however, will be ultimately defined by their stance on North Korean human rights. Will they appease tyranny and lead the Republic of Korea (South Korea) down the path of catastrophic compromise? Or will they become the heroes who brought freedom and human rights to both Koreas, thus decisively opening the path of unification under a truly democratic and prosperous Republic of Korea?

Time will tell. But early signs are not encouraging. The recent ban on leaflet balloon launches and loudspeaker broadcasting into North Korea is one reason for concern. North Korean escapees in South Korea give voice to silenced millions. At this critical crossroads in history, the South Korean administration must protect these heroes and ensure their voices are heard, not muffled.

All this puts the spotlight on the United States’ summit diplomacy. Will it be a historic achievement for President Trump or just another déjà vu North Korean scam?

Under any conceivable outcome, in order to achieve ultimate peace and stability on the Korean peninsula and in Northeast Asia — a fundamental U.S. security interest — the nature of the Kim regime and its horrific human rights abuses must remain in focus.

Human rights cannot be treated as a sidebar issue, possibly sacrificed for a wink and a nod and photo-op with Kim. Human rights must not be abandoned to appease the Kim regime.

Human rights cannot be postponed until an ever-elusive future scenario in which the Kim regime miraculously agrees to protect the rights of its citizens. Despots do not give away human rights out of the goodness of their hearts. Human rights always are achieved and protected through struggle.

Can the U.S. remove a nuclear threat and guarantee human rights and dignity simultaneously?

President Trump, please take note: America already did it and with a much more dangerous foe. During the Cold War, President Ronald Reagan and then-Secretary of State George Shultz used the issue of freedom for Soviet Jewry as the litmus test for Soviet intentions on nuclear disarmament. Eventually, human rights prevailed and the communist system dissolved without a shot being fired.

The U.S. should counter Kim’s cycle of “charm offensives” not through appeasement but through verifiable changes in North Korea. It is important to witness the blowing up of one nuclear test site. Of equal importance will be the dismantling of Kim’s gulag. When that occurs — and only then — can the world be assured that the two estranged Koreas are on the path to a peaceful reunification and a hopeful future for all.

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Rabbi Abraham Cooper is associate dean and director of the Global Social Action Agenda of the Simon Wiesenthal Center. Greg Scarlatoiu is executive director of the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK).

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