Opinion: The sultan's power is dwindling - DW (English)

Over the past 16 years, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has progressively increased his power. But since last year, his influence has been waning, writes DW's Daniel Bellut.

When Recep Tayyip Erdogan took power as Turkey's prime minister in 2003, he was hailed as a liberal reformer intent on bringing the country closer to Europe. But even then, some critics called Erdogan a wolf in sheep's clothing and someone who was pretending to be a democrat out of expediency alone. 

It turns out they were right. After getting rid of his secular rivals in the military and judiciary, Erdogan proceeded to dismantle Turkish democracy in his bid to become something of a modern-day sultan on the old Ottoman model.  

Turning back the clocks

DW's Daniel Bellut

In recent years, Erdogan cleverly overcame all obstacles in his path. He persevered, despite the Gezi Park protests, a corruption scandal and even a 2016 coup attempt. Then, two years later, he transformed Turkey's parliamentary system into a presidential one affording special powers to himself, the leader. Turkey had effectively become a one-man regime.

Today, Erdogan resides in a newly built 1,000-room palace in the Turkish capital, Ankara, akin to an Ottoman sultan. But now, it looks as if his hold on power is slipping just as he seems about to fully realize his dream.

Read more: Recep Tayyip Erdogan: The sultan of 21st-century Turkey

Turkey's economic crisis

Erdogan's power started waning in the summer of 2018, when the mismanagement of the economy began to become evident. Erdogan had focused on expanding the country's building sector, continuing to foster a system of nepotism. Today, as a result, the economy lacks productivity and finds itself mired in a serious crisis. Unemployment, especially among young people, is at record levels. And with the costs for fruits and vegetables skyrocketing, average Turks grew frustrated.

Then, at the local elections in March 2019, Erdogan suffered a serious setback when many of the country's major cities, including Turkey's economic powerhouse Istanbul, went to the opposition. The latter result dealt a particularly heavy blow to Erdogan, who had counted on getting access to Istanbul's brimming state coffers to help him cement his power.

Read more: Istanbul Canal: Erdogan's dream, Istanbul's nightmare

The battle for Istanbul

Desperate to hold onto Istanbul, Erdogan pressured the Supreme Electoral Council of Turkey into a re-run of the city's local elections. Yet again, the opposition triumphed, propelling political shooting star Ekrem Imamoglu onto the stage.

Imamoglu kept his calms and countered the hate directed at him by the ruling party with friendliness. He beat rival Binali Yildirim from Erdogan's AKP party by a wide margin to become Istanbul's new Social Democratic mayor. And now, highly popular Imamoglu is even considered by some as a hot contender for the presidency.

Read more: In Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan's power begins to crumble

Could Imamoglu even run for president?

Erdogan under pressure

Erdogan's stinging electoral defeat also resulted from the polarization of society that he himself has fostered. Now, a diverse range of opposition parties – including the Islamists, nationalists, Social Democrats and left-wing liberals – have overcome their differences to join forces against Erdogan.

And the president is slowly losing support among his own party members, too. About 1 million AKP members have left Erodgan's party over the past year. Not only that. Former allies like ex-Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, former Finance Minister Ali Babacan and ex-President Abdullah Gül have left and founded parties of their own, which will eat into Erodgan's conservative electoral base.

Erdogan has been in power for 16 years. In this time, he has deployed his resilience and strong will to turn himself into a highly powerful modern-day sultan. But since 2019, his power has suddenly come under threat.

In 2023, Turks will celebrate the 100th anniversary of the foundation of modern Turkey – and thus the abolition of the Ottoman sultanate.

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  Turkey: Back to Erdogan's Istanbul roots

  Erdogan's hometown

  Just a short walk from Galata Tower and Istanbul's central Istiklal Avenue on the European side of the city, sits Kasimpasa. It's the neighborhood where the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was born and raised 65 years ago. It's also the place where his most loyal supporters live.

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  Turkey: Back to Erdogan's Istanbul roots

  A new era

  Last summer, Turkey held one of the most consequential elections in the country's modern history. On June 24, 2018, Erdogan started a new five-year term and became the first Turkish president to gain unprecedented new powers. "Turkey is entering a new era," he told members of his Justice and Development Party (AKP) on the day he was sworn in as president again.

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  Turkey: Back to Erdogan's Istanbul roots

  Maximum power

  In the wake of a 2017 referendum, Erdogan managed to change the constitution from a parliamentary democracy to a presidential republic. That allowed Erdogan to now serve both as head or state and head of government. It was the biggest change to the country's political system since the Turkish Republic was established by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk in 1923. Here, a dress has been made out of AKP flags.

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  Turkey: Back to Erdogan's Istanbul roots

  One of the family

  Posters bearing Erdogan's face and AKP flags bedecked Kasimpasa for days ahead of the election. Pasted on walls or hanging from balconies, it was clear who the neighborhood supported. Opposition candidates' posters were usually found torn or vandalized. For the people of Kasimpasa, Erdogan is part of the family.

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  Turkey: Back to Erdogan's Istanbul roots

  A simple background

  Erdogan comes from a conservative, working class family, a background that many of his supporters can relate to. He started his political career from Kasimpasa, where he lived most of his life. He first became mayor of Istanbul in 1994, prime minister in 2003 and president of Turkey in 2014.

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  Turkey: Back to Erdogan's Istanbul roots

  Great expectations

  The residents of Kasimpasa watched the news impatiently on election day in 2018. Most of the neighborhood's cafes were packed with men who had gathered hours earlier, waiting for the official results to come out. They were embroiled in passionate political discussions as they drank Turkish coffee or hot tea on that warm summer day.

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  Turkey: Back to Erdogan's Istanbul roots

  Local hero

  Erdogan is a local hero in Kasimpasa, someone like them who made it to the top. Though he's not exactly one of them anymore, as some of his opponents say. But for the locals nothing has changed. Why do they vote for him? "Because we love him," proclaimed one neighborhood resident who had cast a ballot for the president.

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  Turkey: Back to Erdogan's Istanbul roots

  'Man from Kasimpasa' above all

  Erdogan is known in the area as "Kasimpasali," or "the man from Kasimpasa." When initial results were announced on TV, people of all ages took to the streets of Kasimpasa to celebrate his victory, even though all ballots had not yet been counted. "They are traitors," a group of women said of those who voted for the opposition.

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  Turkey: Back to Erdogan's Istanbul roots

  Celebration

  The victory parade traversed streets throughout Kasimpasa before coming to an end at the central square by the port. There people sang, danced, set off fireworks and shot rifles into the air. A giant LED screen showed the results as people hugged each other and waved AKP flags. It was Erdogan's biggest win to date, and his former neighbors celebrated for him.

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  Turkey: Back to Erdogan's Istanbul roots

  Back to the voting booth

  One year later, the people of Kasimpasa and the rest of Istanbul have been called to the polls once again. The March 31 mayoral election resulted in a slim win for opposition candidate Ekrem Imamoglu over the AKP's Binali Yildirim. Under pressure from the AKP over allegations of ballot "irregularities," the election body nullified the results and scheduled a rerun of the election for June 23.

  Author: Demetrios Ioannou (Istanbul)

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Opinion: The sultan's power is dwindling - DW (English)
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