But the key that opened the door for the 2016 upset was the solid bloc of votes in the WOW counties: Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington. These counties surrounding Milwaukee County in southeastern Wisconsin are the engine that drives the Republican machine in our state.
That engine may be sputtering a bit.
An analysis of Marquette University Law School poll data by Craig Gilbert of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel showed President Donald Trump leading former Vice President Joe Biden by 26 percentage points in the WOW counties in 2020, down three points from his 2016 lead. That sounds impressive but, as Gilbert noted, Mitt Romney won the WOW counties by 35 points in his presidential campaign in 2012 and still lost Wisconsin. Former President George W. Bush won the WOW counties by 35 and 36 points in 2000 and 2004 respectively and lost Wisconsin both times.
Dr. Charles Franklin, the director for the Marquette Law School Poll, told the Wisconsin State Journal that recent election results in statewide Supreme Court races also show the WOW counties' support for the GOP may be eroding.
"That's why both parties are paying attention here," Franklin told the newspaper. "I think both parties see this is a slippage that's something that needs to be stopped if you're the Republicans and something that needs to be exploited if you're the Democrats."
And yet as a long-time Waukesha resident, I find it hard to believe more and more of my friends and neighbors in Waukesha County are ready to vote for former Vice President Joe Biden. Perhaps it's because they're seeing how politics is directly affecting their quality of life.
Parents want to send their kids to school but can't (or are afraid to) because of the Covid-19 virus. They're afraid that even if they decide to send their kids to in-person instruction at school, the school might close down anyway, as they recently did in Kenosha.
My own daughter is reporting to me that teachers and her fellow students are speculating when, not if, her high school will close. They're hoping to complete a theater project before either the school administration or Democratic Gov. Tony Evers orders the schools closed.
The same parents are afraid for their jobs in this shaky economy. A recent Marquette University Law School poll found that 45% of those living in the communities surrounding the city of Milwaukee, the normally Republican suburbs including the WOW counties, believe the economy has gotten worse in the last year.
It doesn't take much of a Facebook search to find friends who lost their jobs because of the Covid-19 pandemic and the resulting economy. From the single mom who just lost her job in the office at a major retail chain to a young man I know who stopped getting hours at a prominent local caterer, the bad economy has not spared the WOW counties.
Making matters worse, our unemployed friends face the uncertainty of applying for unemployment benefits. While the Republican legislature eliminated the one-week waiting period for benefits, the unemployed in Wisconsin sometimes wait months for their benefits to come.
When the unemployment benefits finally arrive, will those benefits include any boost from the federal or state government because of the Covid-19 pandemic? Currently, the state is offering an additional $300 per week, but payments won't start until October and the program will continue until it runs out of funds.
However, that uncertainty and fear have a counterweight on the scale: the protests, which have been violent at times. Voters in the WOW counties want to be "fair," but at the same time they believe the police deserve our support. Brandon Rosner, a health care consultant in Waukesha County, supported the First Amendment rights of the protesters.
"I think the protests are a wonderful, constitutional way for people to express their concerns. I welcome peaceful protests as a resident and as a citizen of Wisconsin and Waukesha," Rosner said to me in an interview. "Yet the police in our community, they have a very difficult job at times and they're under extreme scrutiny because they have to enforce these laws and maintain law and order."
While the suburbs were initially supportive of the Black Lives Matters protests, the looting and violence have dampened that support in the areas outside of Milwaukee. The favorable rating for Black Lives Matters experienced a 25-point drop in support from June to September, according to the Marquette Law School Poll. And pictures of the aftermath of some of this violence, whether of the vandalized state capitol, the nearby boarded-up businesses or the destruction in Kenosha have undermined the legitimacy of any of the protests.
Many people living in the WOW counties, regardless of race, avoided living in Milwaukee because of fears of crime, high taxes and failing schools. Now the violence of the protests in Milwaukee and Madison has spread to Kenosha. Another police shooting has businesses in nearby Wauwatosa boarding up and preparing for the worst.
If the shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha is ruled justifiable, which is very possible, what will be the consequences? How long can Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul, a Democrat, stall the final conclusion of the case?
Hanging over all of this is the conduct of Trump himself.
It's worth remembering that, in 2016, Wisconsin Republican voters actually rejected Trump in the presidential primary -- opting for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz instead. That was especially true in the WOW counties, where conservative voters were repulsed by then-candidate Trump's conduct.
While Trump's voter core has found an almost infinite capacity to explain away or forgive the President's personal conduct and rhetoric, the more independent voters of the WOW counties wish they could have the conservative judges and tax cuts without the Trump circus. Still, the Democrats could scare enough voters into supporting Trump.
Higher taxes, threats to gun rights and even more talk by Biden's fellow Democrats about defunding the police, will remind many suburban voters why they didn't trust the Democrats four years ago. And if the Democrats fall into the trap of attacking Judge Amy Coney Barrett for her religious beliefs during her confirmation hearings, the Supreme Court vacancy could be enough to bring wayward Wisconsin Republican voters home -- just as another Supreme Court vacancy did in 2016.
"Opinion" - Google News
October 09, 2020 at 05:59PM
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Trump's one hope to win Wisconsin - CNN
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