For President Biden, who had hoped for an orderly U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, the chaos in Kabul carries echoes of the fall of Saigon in 1975 — precisely the image he wanted to avoid. And the Taliban’s drive for military victory — ignoring pledges to negotiate a transition of power — will raise questions about whether its promises to prevent al-Qaeda from rebuilding safe havens in Afghanistan can be trusted.
Biden was said by close associates to be “resolute” in his decision to withdraw U.S. forces, despite the rapidly deteriorating situation and the temporary return of troops to shepherd the sharp reduction in U.S. Embassy personnel. Biden has felt strongly since 2009 that the United States should pursue only a limited mission in Afghanistan, and as president he moved quickly to withdraw troops despite contrary advice from Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
The speed of the Taliban’s advance has been a stunning demonstration of battlefield momentum, in which one victory fuels another, and of the immense psychological impact of Biden’s decision to withdraw all U.S. combat troops without a solid plan to stabilize the country afterward. For Biden and other senior officials, the biggest surprise is that the Afghan military hasn’t performed better on the battlefield since the president announced he would pull the plug.
Against those who argue that Biden should have retained the 2,500 U.S. troops stationed in Afghanistan when he became president, administration officials contend that maintaining the status quo with such a small force would have been impossible. The Taliban would have resumed attacks on U.S. forces, prompting the United States to consider adding more troops and perhaps beginning another fruitless cycle in what seems like an endless war.
The Taliban’s blitz has surprised senior administration officials. Since Biden’s withdrawal announcement in April, the insurgents have swept across the country. Maps of Afghanistan compiled by the Long War Journal have shown Taliban control spreading like a massive ink blot, with only a small area of government control in the center.
The Taliban escalated its campaign a week ago, moving to seize provincial capitals that have fallen like a row of dominoes and mounting a surprisingly sophisticated campaign. They moved early in the north, knowing that this region had spawned the Northern Alliance under Ahmad Shah Massoud that drove the Taliban from power in 2001. The Taliban deployed their own version of special operations forces, known as “red units,” which helped break government defenses. When the Taliban seized provincial capitals such as Kunduz, they freed prisoners held there, augmenting their forces.
The Taliban also control major exit routes from the country, after seizing what U.S. officials say were more than half of the 14 crossing points in recent days. The sense of entrapment is likely to increase the panic among Afghan civilians. The Biden administration has pledged to aid the departure of Afghans who worked with U.S. forces, one reason for the additional troops. But amid the chaos, those promises will be hard to keep.
What appears ahead is a battle for Kabul itself, a bloody confrontation from which the Biden administration is trying to extricate as many Americans as possible. The Taliban, having nearly encircled the approaches to the capital, may decide to delay the final battle.
U.S. officials hope the Taliban will be deterred by a warning this week from neighbors — Pakistan, Russia, China and Turkey — that they won’t recognize a Taliban government if the insurgents take power by force. This diplomatic pressure is welcome, but late and limited. Many key countries have been displaying the diplomatic equivalent of schadenfreude — savoring America’s predicament rather than considering their own future difficulties.
The Taliban will have difficulty swallowing Afghanistan, for all its success on the battlefield. Afghanistan has become an increasingly urban and modern society since the U.S. invasion in 2001. The Taliban’s military forces number only about 80,000, in a country of about 39 million. For millions of Afghan women, who have been attending schools and universities the past two decades and sharing in a freer country, the prospect of a Taliban return to power is especially bleak.
On paper, the Afghan government’s military is nearly four times larger than the Taliban. But they lack the organization, discipline and will to combat the insurgents. As Carter Malkasian writes in “The American War in Afghanistan,” his superb new history, “The Taliban exemplified something that inspired, something that made them powerful in battle, something closely tied to what it meant to be Afghan.”
That story was written in blood across the country this week.
"Opinion" - Google News
August 13, 2021 at 06:56AM
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Opinion | The bloody war in Afghanistan is nearing a final tipping point - The Washington Post
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